China sees opportunity in Trump-induced turmoil

Author: Director, Rand Center for China Studies Jude Blanchette

 

Chinese President Xi Jinping in2018"world is undergoing a century-old change."this important assertion has since become the core expression of China's geopolitical world view. This expressioncan not helpis reminiscent of the dramatic changes that followed World War I on a global scale, such as the collapse of European empires and the reshaping of the international political order. China believes that similar profound changes are happening again. Artificial Intelligence, Biotechnology and Quantum Computing, etc.TechnologyandBreakthrough,domestic political instability in the United States and Europe, andChina's rapid development makesthe global economic center of gravity to the Asia-Pacific regionobviouslytransfer,of these factors are driving the change of the world pattern.

Xi JinpingGeneral Secretaryin2018year whenmay seem a bit ahead of time., however, to this day, this one.Judgmentis increasingly showing its accuracy. US President Trumpconstantly provokedtrade war; Russia-Ukraine conflict still shows no signs of ceasefire, Peaceoutlook is fragile and uncertain. Meanwhile, Trumpblatant contemptthe EU has also put the transatlantic alliance under great pressure. In addition,artificial intelligence and other emerging technologiesfastdevelopmentinis unprecedented and unusable.reversalways to subvert economic, social and geopolitical powerstructure.

now is whether China can take advantagethe opportunity of "a great change unseen in a century" to promote interest cooperation with the United States and Europe, or to miss the advantage in the turmoil. In theory, if Xi Jinping and Trump can reach an "important consensus", it may stabilize Sino-US relations and ease tensions in the trade and military fields between the two countries. However, the deep-rooted distrust of each other between the two sides means that even if consensus can be reached, it may quickly evolve into a fierce competition of great powers.

in Europe, China sees new opportunities to repair relations. Trump's hostile approach to Europe has weakened the cohesion of the transatlantic alliance, and the ongoing peace talks in Ukraine have raised new hopes for regional stability. European leaders, however, remain wary of working with China. If the peace talks in Ukraine break down and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine breaks out again, China will have to make a difficult choice between pursuing European economic interests and maintaining strategic relations with Russia.

through prudent diplomacy, China may be able to achieve some tactical victories in the short term, but no matter how much China strategizes and facessuspiciousUnited States and Europe still have many difficulties in winning their trust, which makes it difficult for China to achieve lasting strategic results in the two major relations between the United States and Europe. In contrast, China is more likely to take advantage of the US strategic contraction in Latin America, Africa and Asia to win diplomatic advantages.